Editorial: Congress shines in semi-final

The semi-final, as was billed by pollsters, political analysts and leaders of political parties, has come as a rude shock to the BJP and as a shot in the arm for the Congress. Bruised by the Mumbai terror attacks and the consequent media attacks, the Congress has surprisingly emerged stronger, stunning both the BJP and the media.

For the BJP, the results of the Assembly elections are certainly a serious setback. It could retain only Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (where too the margins of victory are smaller, compared to the previous elections), and lost the crucial state of Rajasthan to archrival Congress. For a party that was looking to sweep four states, and ends up with just two, the BJP’s hopes of an early return to power at the Centre have crashed. It will now go through an agonising period of soul-searching, game-blame and scapegoat-finding to push into a deeper mess.

The Delhi win for Congress has meant that it has not merely retained the national capital but also made significant gains in Rajasthan and Mizoram. For a party which has not won in the states in the last couple of years, the results are a tonic to the Congress leadership.

BJP leader L K Advani was touted as the prime ministerial candidate. But he has bitten the dust, particularly in Delhi, where V K Malhotra, projected as the Chief Minister, failed though he was Advani’s personal choice. That the Congress could grab a state (Rajasthan) from BJP’s kitty is like adding salt to his wounds. A win in the Hindi heartland is, therefore, extremely crucial for the Congress in the run-up to the LS polls.

The scorecard of the semi-final reads thus:

BJP: Retained only 2 out of 3 states it held in 2003: No gains from the Congress or any other party.

Congress: Retained its Delhi state. Gained two states from the opposition - Rajasthan and Mizoram. Narrowed BJP’s margins in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

The cries from the BJP camp are strange. Poor selection of candidates in Delhi, laments one leader. If so, do they lament selecting Malhotra as their leader too? And what about the poor selection (of Malhotra) by Advani? That brings one to the question, what about the selection of Advani as PM candidate? Is he a poor choice too?

Advani’s (and that of many BJP leaders too) favourite pot-shot was that wherever Sonia and Rahul Gandhi would go, the Congress party would lose. They can’t say that anymore, the Congress having won at least 3 of the 6 states that went to the polls recently, especially after the disastrous Mumbai blasts.

Of course, Advani conveniently forgot that his party lost elections (a drubbing) in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where he campaigned intensively for the BJP.

What is worse for the BJP is that it has not merely lost the sheen of going into 2009 with many states in its kitty, with Congress in losing vein and BJP on the upward march, the boot is on the other leg as a resurgent and triumphant Congress will strengthen its march for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Smaller parties which looked to be gravitating towards the BJP and NDA for an alliance will now do a re-think and not like to throw their lot with a sinking party. Some of them will think of the Congress as a winning horse. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) in Tamil Nadu is a case in point. It may decide to stick to the Congress as poll partner.

Parties like the Left, BSP and AIADMK will look at the 2009 polls with renewed hope knowing that there could be a hung Parliament, and there would be scope for a Third Front to do some fishing.

The worst fears for the BJP are that both the Congress and the Third Front will work with renewed hope and vigour and the BJP will be seized by internal convulsions as they grope for the right formula and right leaders to make their pitch.

With inflation easing, dropping to 8.40 per cent from the highs of close to 12 per cent a few months ago, as the spectre of the Mumbai terror recedes and as more freebies could come in the next Union budget, the BJP’s worry is that the Congress will widen the gap and inch closer to the half-way mark in the next Lok Sabha elections due in April-May 2009.